Sports Dopes

Why Teams Should Draft Matt Ryan

April 25th, 2008

John Lynch, SportsDopes.com

I’m not going to make ridiculous arguments about Ryan’s arm strength.  I’m not going to make the standard template draft prognosticator argument, citing that Ryan has “all the intangibles”.

Sidenote:  Isn’t this logically impossible?  If an intangible is something that can’t be quantified, how is it possible to have all of it?  Furthermore, I think this argument stinks of racism.  The subtext is “He’s a smart white kid”, but perhaps I’m reading too deeply into an already intellectual flawed statement.

Truth be told, I have no idea if Matt Ryan will be a successful quarterback.  The more I’ve considered it, the more I think it’s impossible for anyone to really know.  This brings me to only one conclusion:

Mel Kiper Jr. is the devil.

 

Here’s the formula for creating a mock draft:

Step 1: Read other mock drafts.  Watching game tape is irrelevant and won’t nearly justify the time expended watching hours of game tape on each player.  By reading other mock drafts, you can easily draw conclusions on players you’ve never actually watched.

Step 2: Make the Analysis Vague

When giving analyses of prospects’ pro potential, try to use nebulous and ambiguous statements like “this player has a really high motor”.  Try to also talk about a player’s energy and intangibles.  These are great tools for compensating for a lack of actual knowledge.

Step 3: Say the Course

The most important tip is to try not to deviate too far from the standard mock draft consensus.  For all the research that Pro teams do, they actually read mock drafts.  This is somewhat logical since General Managers have feeble job security, thus hating to buck the general consensus of uninformed opinion makers.

Interestingly enough, the two teams that defy convention the most enjoy perpetual success.  The Colts drafted Edgerrin James over Ricky Williams and the Patriots shocked everyone by drafting Logan Mankins in the first round despite being largely considered a third round pick.  Both players went on two dominate their respective positions.

Step 4: Rely on misinformation disseminated from teams.  I’ve seen the paragraph a million times.  It starts like this: “A source close to the (insert angry bird team here) says they’re looking to draft Big Fatty with the fourth overall pick.”

They’re not looking to draft Big Batty.  They’re spreading rumors to stir trade interest so they can get the hell out of the albatross that is the top 10 of the NFL draft.  Why pay 60 million for Big Fatty 1a when you can get Big Fatty 1b for 15 million in picks 10-20?  Statistically, there’s not going to be much of a difference.

Step 5: Never revisit old predictions unless you’re 100% correct. Take a look at this Peter King “draft analysis”.  How much Edgerrin James game tape do you think he watched before the draft?  It’s really irrelevant, so long as you appear credible in the here an now.  Just keep making uninformed garbage opinions and move on.

Back to Matt Ryan

Again, I have no idea if Matt Ryan is going to be good or not.  What I do know is that Matt Ryan is largely considered the best quarterback in the NFL Draft.  Unfortunately for Ryan, there’s a new trend of passing on the top prospect and waiting for later rounds to pluck the next Tom Brady or Marc Bulger.

I studied every quarterback drafted over a ten year window (’94-’04), stopping at 2005 because the jury is still out on several players such as Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.  My goal was to analyze the likelihood of drafting an impact quarterback in each round.

While the metrics I used were somewhat fluid in determining whether or not a player was “productive”, I typically used the following guidelines:

1. The QB has at least 18,000 yards passing.

2. You could reasonably expect the QB to play well enough to win in a wild card playoff game.

3. Looking back, you feel the draft pick was successful.

While these guidelines are somewhat arbitrary, it creates a good platform for who can be considered productive.  At the high end of this spectrum is Peyton Manning and at the low end is Brian Griese.  Griese had 18,000 yards passing and made 1 Pro Bowl.  Griese is an admittedly questionable inclusion in the “productive” category.  Other questionable inclusions are Aaron Brooks (20,000 passing yds) and Gus Frerotte  (1 Pro Bowl, 19,000 passing yards).  I’m not going to go to great lengths to defend them.  They are the only three quarterbacks “on the fence” and I decided to include them all as their impact on the study is relatively minimal.

Round 1 (1994-2004)

Of the 25 quarterbacks drafted in round 1 over this ten-year period, 11 were productive quarterbacks.  Statistically, one could say that any given team has a 44% chance of drafting a productive quarterback in the first round of the draft.

Who made the cut: S. McNair, K. Collins (34,000 passing yards), Peyton Manning, D. McNabb, D. Culpepper, C. Pennington, M. Vick, C. Palmer, P. Rivers, B. Rothlisberger, E. Manning

Who didn’t: Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer, Jim Druckenmiller, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, David Carr, J. Harrington, P. Ramsey, B. Leftwich, K. Boller, R. Grossman, J.P. Losman

 

Round 2 (1994-2004)

Quarterbacks Drafted: 9

Productive Quarterbacks: 2

Success Rate: 22%

Who made the cut: Jake Plummer, Drew Brees

Who didn’t: t.collins, k. stewart, Charlie Batch, Shaun King, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo

 

Round 3 (1994-2004)

Quarterbacks Drafted: 12

Productive Quarterbacks: 2

Success Rate: 17%

Who made the cut: Brian Griese, Matt Schaub

Who didn’t: stoney case, e. zeir, Bobby Hoying, Jonathan Quinn, Brock Huard, Josh McCown, Chris Simms, Dave Ragone

 

Round 4

Quarterbacks Drafted: 19

Productive Quarterbacks: 2

Success Rate: 11%

Who made the cut: Aaron Brooks, David Garrard

Who didn’t: Doug Nussmeier, Perry Klein, rob johnson, chad may, dave barr, steve stenstrom, Jeff Lewis, Danny Kannell, Joe Germain, Chris Weinke, Sage Rosengels, Jesse Palmer, Rohan Davey, Seneca Wallace, Luke Mccown

 

Round 5

Quarterbacks Drafted: 11

Productive Quarterbacks: 0

Success Rate: 0%

Who made the cut: none

Who didn’t: jay barker, Kevin Daft, Tee Martin, Mike McMahon, AJ Feeley, Randy Fasani, Kurt Kittner Brandon Doman, Craig Nall, Brian St. Pierre Craig Krenzel

 

Round 6

Quarterbacks Drafted: 24

Productive Quarterbacks: 3

Success Rate: 13%

Who made the cut: Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger, Tom Brady

Who didn’t: Jim Miller, Jerry Colquit, Craig Whelihan, Spencer Fischer, Matt Cawley, Mike Cherry, Chuck Klements, John Dutton, Spergon Wynn, Todd Husak, Jajuan Seider, Josh Booty, Josh Heupel, JT O’Sullivan, Brooks Bollinger, Kliff Kingsbury, Drew Henson, Andy Hall, Josh Harris, Jim Sorgi, Jeff Smoker.

 

Round 7

Quarterbacks Drafted: 30

Productive Quarterbacks: 1

Success Rate: 3%

Who made the cut: Gus Frerotte

Who didn’t: Glenn Foley, Jay Walker, Steve Matthews, John Walsh, Tony Graziani, Koy Detmer, Wally Richardson, Tony Corbin, Ronnie McAda, Moses Moreno, Michael Bishop, Chris Greisen, Scott Covington, Tim Rattay, Joe Hamilton, Jarious Jackson, Seth Burford, Jeff Kelly, Wes Pate, Gibran Hamdan, Ken Dorsey, John Navarre, Cody Pickett, Casey Bramlet, Matt Mauck, BJ Symons, Bradlee Van Pelt

 

Totals

Round           Chance of Drafting a productive Starter

1                      44%

2                      22%

3                      17%

4                      11%

5                      0%

6                      13%

7                      3%

In Peter King’s utopia, you don’t even need the NFL draft.  He’s a big fan if signing free agent players like Tony Romo and Ryan Grant and then watching them erupt into perennial Pro Bowlers.

I’m flabbergasted at people’s failure to realize that the Tom Brady’s of the world are statistical anomalies.  If a team wants to draft an impact quarterback, it needs to be drafting in the first round.

Back To Matt Ryan… Again

Is there any guarantee that he will be the next Peyton Manning?  Of course not.  In fact, this study reveals that there’s slightly less than a coin flip’s chance that he will be productive. 

However, a team has little chance of winning the Superbowl without a productive quarterback (the only exception being Trent Dilfer) therefore making it imperative that teams take this gamble.

Skeptics often point to Ryan Leaf as the poster boy for not taking a quarterback high in the draft.  Leaf’s performance with the Charges was abysmal.  On top of it, he decimated their salary cap space with a 40 million dollar contract and left a wake of alienated teammates along the way.

Undoubtedly, Leaf’s implosion set the franchise back three years.  The Chargers inevitably recovered, but only because they refused to alter their drafting strategy.  In 2001, they selected Drew Brees with the first pick in the second round.  In 2004, they drafted another Pro Bowler by trade-drafting Philip Rivers at the 5^th overall pick.

In the first round, for every Peyton Manning there is a Ryan Leaf.  But for every Tom Brady, there are 7 Spergon Wynn’s. Not very promising if you’re a GM

NFL teams need to start taking a page out of Anton Chigurh’s character in No Country for Old Men.  Let the coin flip determine your fate and hope for the best. 

But unlike Chigurh’s victims, failed franchises will always have the opportunity to flip again in three years.

 

 

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Why Clemens Needs Steroids… For the Brain

December 18th, 2007

By John Lynch, Sports Dopes Staff | December 18, 2007

I can’t believe that pro athletes are still making the same mistakes over and over.

All Roger Clemens had to do was say “Yes, I used a few times”, and just like Pettite, this story would be on its way out the door. But no, he’s naive enough to think the press will just lose interest and walk away. It’s beyond silly and he’s making the same mistakes that made Barry Bonds the single greatest villain in the history of popular culture.

On the other hand, Jason Giambi has completely rehabilitated his career through the healing power of admission. For some reason, players completely underestimate the value in saying “I did it. I’m ashamed. I stopped using it a long time ago and will never use again.”

One common side effect of steroids: ghosting.

When the masses scream for blood, throw yourself at the mercy of the masses. No one wants to beat up on a person who begs forgiveness because, after all, it goes directly counter to faiths of 85% of this country. Moreover, baseball fans are desperate to close this particularly ugly chapter in the game’s otherwise rich history.

It’s going to be an interesting day when all the players from the steroid era are ushered into the hall of fame. Undoubtedly, there are busts of players in Canton right now who have elongated their careers through some sort of illicit chemical enhancement.

Sorry to disappoint, Ladies and Gentleman, but it happened. Steroids were a wide spread epidemic that completely tarnished this era of baseball. More importantly, it’s impossible to say definitively who used and who didn’t. Soon enough, once the masses have been neutralized by some other scandal that swoops in and steals the fervor, baseball will adopt an all or nothing policy on Hall of Fame admission. No amount of muckraking will solve this caper and, unfortunately, everyone from this era should be considered guilty until proven innocent. There’s no need for asterisks and certainly no need for footnotes. The quiet whispers in the hallowed halls of Canton will serve just fine.

As I’ve said before, it’s moronic to blame the players alone. Management, Major League Baseball, and the media are just as culpable. We looked in the other direction while it was happening because steroids single-handedly revived the game of baseball. The era of the long ball riveted a depreciating fan base that was soured by the baseball strike of 1994.

I don’t blame the players for using steroids. If the difference between 20 million dollars and sitting on the couch at home was in a syringe, you would probably take it. I know I would.

We have laws and we enforce those laws to protect people from themselves. We need it. We need the deterrent because, often times, the stakes are just too high.The counter argument is simple: there is always choice. But the truth is, good people made bad mistakes. Heralded as a man that took less money to play in St. Louis because his family was happy, Mark McGuire was considered one of the classiest player in the history of the game until his reputation was tarnished by steroids.

Want to know the sad truth? We talk about steroids in baseball in the past tense as if HGH (not testable) isn’t still making the rounds through Major League Baseball like speedballs at a Wall Street party in the late 80’s. It’s still here and it’s not going away until we can find adequate testing solutions.

The interesting evolution to this story is that the American public is no longer judging players if they used, but judging them by how they react upon being discovered. Do they take their medicine or insult the intelligence of the American public by playing dead?

Mark my words; this is one bullet Clemens can’t dodge. Even with the steroids.

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Why The Patriots Won’t Sit Starters

November 8th, 2007

By John Lynch, Sports Dopes Staff | October 11, 2007 

There’s been a great deal of talk among media pundits that the Patriots don’t have a shot of attaining perfection because they’ll sit starters in weeks 16/17.

I can’t imagine the Patriots doing this for several reasons and none of them have anything to do with going 16-0.

If the Patriots rest starters in the final week of the season, it means their best players won’t enter a game for three weeks until the divisional championship in January.  The Colts tried this strategy in 2005, resting Peyton Manning after only a couple series in a week 16 loss to Seattle. The result was a passing offense that looked rusty and out of sync for the first half of a playoff loss to Pittsburgh.

Passing offenses like the Patriots of 2007 need timing, consistency, and work.  Belichick is smart enough to learn from the mistakes of the past in understanding that risking injuries is apart of football.  Ten rusty starters is much more devastating to the success of a team than one potentially injured player.  Injury is an inherent part of the game.  Under this flawed reasoning, wouldn’t it then be unwise to play starters in preseason games or even in practices?

Also, a perfect regular season means a whole lot to the Patriots than they are willing to admit.  The Patriot’s motto is to ignore the personal achievement and push for team success.  Following that logic, is there any greater team achievement than the perfect season?

There will be a number of roadblocks separating the Patriots from perfection, but rest assured, the Patriots won’t be resting. 

 

Posted in NFL | 1 Comment »

Patty Perfection?

October 11th, 2007

By John Lynch, Sports Dopes Staff | October 11, 2007

After week one’s commanding 38-14 victory over the Jets, I called my father to discuss their chances.

Me: Do you think it’s premature?
Dad: Yes, but I think they have a shot at it.
Me: Me too. I want to say it out loud.
Dad: Don’t.

Hint: we weren’t talking about a Superbowl.

In a quintessential demonstration of the unbridled arrogance and obnoxiousness it takes to be a New England fan, I’m predicting the Patriots to go a perfect 19-0.

Bill Belichick, after winning front row seats to a Bon Jovi concert by being Kiss caller 108.

Life is good if you’re a New England Patriot fan right now. A major sports scandal was flicked aside like an errant piece of dandruff stuck to the side of a t-shirt. The Patriots are dominant and poised to win their fourth world championship of the new millennium.

They only really question is: can they do it in style?

Thus far, the Patriots appear to be the most dominant team in the history of the NFL. Both lines are rock solid, their passing attack superior, and their linebackers are some of the best in the history of the NFL.

I like their chances for going 16-0, and here’s why:

1) Dolphinless- The Miami Dolphins were a constant problem for the Patriots. Their nasty defense has plagued Tom Brady, who holds a sub- 70% career passer rating against them. This year, the Dolphins are one of the weakest teams in the NFL and can be chalked up as easy wins. Their other division rivals, Buffalo and the Jets, are downright atrocious. Count 6 easy wins.

2) Bilichick Beatings- Despite universal praise from media pundits, Billy Boy has managed to keep the Patriots believing they’re a disrespected squad. I imagine their bulletin board must look a little like watching a copy of Goodbye Lennon after censors in the Chinese government had their way with it.

3) New Acquisitions- Randy Moss and Wes Welker are both racing to see who can set franchise reception records. For the two, the Patriots gave up fourth and second round picks, respectively. To put it in perspective, the Miami Dolphins gave up the ninth overall pick for Ted Ginn Jr.

Sidenote: I’ve been trying to convince my Mexican born friend and ardent Dolphin fan, Leo, to come to the dark side. I think I’m slowly breaking him down with offers of free tacos. For now, he refuses, calling 26 year-old rookie quarterback John Beck “the future”. He’s in a sad, weird place right now that I don’t particularly envy.

Leo also continues to root just as fervently against the Patriots. He does this because he’s frightened. For even he realizes that the Patriots are knocking on the door of the last remaining legacy of the Dolphins franchise: perfection.

Maybe the Patriots will stumble. Who knows, maybe Belichick will rest Tom Brady in the last two games of the year similar to the Colts team several years back. It’s a common roadside trap that few think of when making these bold predictions. Fortunately for the Patriots, Belichick is no Dungy. Belichick will sacrifice as many innocent children as it takes to climb the fiery mountain that is the undefeated season.

Like most Pats fans, I’m willing to eat Belichick’s humble pie but, most assuredly, I won’t ask what’s in it.

Posted in Sports Debates | 5 Comments »

Instant Replay in Baseball?

October 6th, 2007

John Lynch:

There’s an element about baseball that I can’t stand. There’s a certain pretentious air that surrounds the game and the people that perpetuate this elitism are commonly referred to as “purists.” They say meaningless things like “baseball is America’s pastime.” These believers think that the game of baseball is flawless– a sort of art that was perfected generations ago.

To those who believe this: baseball is nothing more than a product.

Can you imagine Henry Ford deciding that the Model-T was the end product for cars? If he suddenly decided there would be no more development because 35 mph is fast enough? Baseball refuses to make any changes because the old men that run the show are deluded enough to think it’s untouchable.

Truth be told, baseball has slowly lost its market share to the point where the NFL has become “America’s Game” (and has been for quite some time).

The elitism doesn’t exist in the NFL, which continues to grow and change with it’s audience. When the NFL discovered the opportunity to implement instant replay, they did so with relatively little hesitation. The NFL continuously makes rule changes to ensure a quality product. They constantly tinker with its secret sauce in the hopes that they can somehow improve upon it.

Professional sports are just like any other business. You have to adapt to the surrounding marketplace or else you’ll die. The idea of MLB not implementing a limited form of instant replay is ludicrous. It’s staunchy and it’s a sign of fear. Sadly, baseball knows it’s slowly bleeding and has no clue how to stop it. It’s like teaching your grandparents how to use the internet: they don’t know and they certainly don’t care.

I’m hardly a baseball fan, but I would be if they were willing to put out a better product.

Here are a few ideas that will never happen that should:

1. Change the game to seven innings. Three hours every night? Are you kidding me? Baseball is longer than a Peter Jackson movie.

2. Reduce the number of games. Let’s go from 162 to, say, 30. Every game in baseball from April to August is meaningless. Football is so successful because every game counts.

I know baseball will never make these changes so it’s probably silly to even mention them. Besides, baseball still has an inexplicably large audience despite these shortcomings. But why not instant reply? Why not make small changes that will improve the game without fundamentally changing it? It’s funny to watch Bud Selig argue against it, which is essentially “screw it. I don’t feel like it.”

Baseball needs to stop congratulating itself on its past successes and start fretting about impending failures.

I’ll watch tonight. I’ll watch because I’m supposed to, but not because I want to. I’ll have a big cup of coffee, strap my eyelids open, and daydream about how excited I am for Sunday football.

Dan Criscuolo:

I want it, but only in the Playoff’s. The most common argument is that “The human element is part of the game.”

My response: The players are the human element, not the umpires. The umpires are there to enforce the rules of the game. If a ball goes over the fence the rules say it is a home run. If a player gets to the bag before the ball or tag he is safe. If the umpire does not properly enforce the rules he has violated the rules and adversely affected the outcome of the game. If you are a true baseball purest you should want the rules of the game to be enforced correctly. I don’t see any reason why an umpire can’t be positioned upstairs in a booth with video replay to guarantee the best possible call is made. The umpires generally make the right calls but they can not see everything. This would not be for balls and strikes. This would only be for out/safe, fair/foul, or interference.

This also works in the best interests of the umpires. With the way fans are today, what umpire would not want the tools to prevent the psychotic response of fans because of a bad call. Players and fans have been devastated by the media for bad plays and untimely interference. This could easily happen to an umpire for a bad call.

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Tisk, Tisk!

September 20th, 2007

Tisk, Tisk!

by: Soren Christensen, soren@sportsdopes.com

So, it turns out that all those times you suspected Bill Belichick of being an A Hole, you were right. First the guy acts like a complete child that Eric Mangini went to a division rival for a head coaching job. Actually, no, first he was a giant, disgusting looking mess of a coach. Then he was a jerk to disciple Mangini. And now we get Spygate.

“Here’s a riddle: I’m exactly what I’m puckering right now…”

Side-note: If the media puts “gate” on the end of one more scandal I might actually kill myself. In the world series it was “tar-gate” with Kenny Rogers. In the political spectrum we’ve had “memo-gate” and “monica-gate.” And who can forget the greatest of all – Justin Timberlake and Janet Jackson’s “nipple-gate” during SuperBowl XXXVIII. I understand that the Watergate scandal was one of the biggest in modern US history, but can we please all band together and finally move on?

Back to Belichick. It’s unfortunate for Pats fans that this all came to light. Bill might have made it through the next few years, retired and nobody would have known about it. But now you have to question all of his success. I remember one of the most knowledgeable NFL fans I know – Leo Roth – would always talk about how great Belichick was adjusting at half-time. Now we realize why that just might be. And to add insult to injury – HE CHEATED AGAINST THE LIONS. Bill, are you really this desperate?

So to all you already jaded Boston sports fans: HAHA. You now will get bombarded with comments calling into question all three Belichick Superbowls. You’re back to square one. But this time on an even playing field.

Posted in NFL, Sports Debates | 4 Comments »

Jon Kitna is the Man

September 19th, 2007

by: Soren Christensen, soren@sportsdopes.com

When was the last time a Detroit quarterback was lauded not only by the Detroit media, but by the national media? Well after last Sunday’s semi-heroic performance, Kitna has been getting his accolades.

After suffering a concussion in the 2nd quarter of a 20-17 OT win over the Minnesota Vikings, Kitna had basically been shut down for the game by coaching and medical staff. After a tooth-pulling like performance by backup J.T. O’Sullivan, Kitna lobbied to get back into the game halfway through the 4th quarter. An immediate difference was seen with him moving the chains much quicker and more effectively than O’Sullivan. When this offense is clicking, it’s sexier than Gisele Bundchen and Jessica Simpson accidentally making out and touching each other.

Yes, those words came out of my mouth. “John Kitna is the Man.”

A religious man, Kitna called it a miracle, and as a Detroit Lions fan, it’s hard to disagree. I can’t remember when a Detroit quarterback played with so much heart that he’d risk life and limb as Kitna did in the 4th. He twice ran long yards for a first down, one of which he was thrown almost upside down. The guy is a fierce competitor who has made me a believer. Not necessarily of a Lions playoff team, but certainly in his leadership.

To start my fantasy football season, I jokingly named my team John Kitna is the Future. I knew he was at least a serviceable quarterback and at best a good one, but with the man being 34 and the long history of bad quarterbacks here, I figured we’d be best to search for a younger franchise quarterback. Well, I hope Kitna continues to prove me wrong.

Posted in NFL | 3 Comments »

2007 NFL Rookie of the Year

September 6th, 2007

Soren Christensen:

And the winner is…Calvin Johnson on the 5-11 Detroit Lions. Still blown away that Matt Millen has chosen a wide receiver four times in the first round of the NFL Draft. The funny thing is this year, just as with every other, the argument by the national media and Detroit Lions fans is that he is a sure thing. YOU ALL SAID CHARLES ROGERS AND MIKE WILLIAMS WERE FREAK ATHLETES WITH INSANE TALENT AS WELL!

It certainly does appear that CJ has great potential and is more promising than the Michigan State and USC bums that we had to kick out already. It also does appear that Johnson will be involved in a potentially very potent and powerful passing attack (I apologize for the consonance). The guy has the body, the skill, and the right system to be the NFL Rookie of the Year. It surely would make Lions fans happy to have him catch for close to 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Calvin Johnson will attempt to reverse Matt Millen’s debilitating retardation

The only kink in Calvin Johnson’s Rookie of the Year aspirations is that fact that the Lions currently have entrenched Roy Williams, one of the leaders in NFC reception yards, and Mike Furrey, the leader in NFC receptions. However, knowing how injury plagued the NFL and even more so the Lions are, one of them will probably go down, allowing for more receptions and yards for CJ the Beast.

Side-note: Wouldn’t it be funny though (and I’m saying this as a Lions fan) to see yet another one of not only Matt Millen’s first rounders bust, but another one of his first round receivers. Nobody has been allowed to fail this much and maintain power than one Mr. William Clay Ford Jr. himself. And even he’s ceded control of his organization – Ford Motor Co. – to Alan Mulally, formerly of Boeing. I seriously think a remake of Gigli with Ben Affleck playing all roles would have more success than Millen has had in Detroit.

John Lynch:

Adrien Peterson- ROY of the year tends to award offensive players that can put up big numbers. Since there are no rookie quarterbacks starting from Jump Street and wide receivers typically don’t hit their stride until year three, that leaves running backs.

If Peterson can stay healthy, he should walk away with the award quite handily. Another odds-on-favorite is my namesake Marshawn Lynch (we both share the name Marshawn). Unfortunately, Lynch has looked just terrible in preseason, and it’s difficult to decipher whether it’s his running style or dismal offensive line that’s doing the most damage. My guess is that it’s a little of both. Lynch’s tackle breaking skills against second-rate NCAA opponents may not translate to the NFL and he could find himself bear hugged from behind faster than Andy Dick at Lotus on a Saturday night.

Calvin Johnson has looked just average in preseason and it appears the learning curve will be a bit more steep than previously anticipated for Big Beautiful.

Also, expect Brady Quinn to enter the starting lineup in week six. If Quinn can put up big numbers, the quarterback could see himself in contention. Jamarcus Russell has missed all of camp and will be lucky to see mop up duty in year one.

That leaves Adrien “My Collarbone!” Peterson. I’m not ecstatic about this pick, but I’m hoping he can emulate his freshman season at Oklahoma when he managed to stay injury free.

Posted in NCAA Football, NFL, Sports Debates | No Comments »

2007 NFL Sleeper Team

September 5th, 2007

John Lynch:

Minnesota Vikings- It’s a risky pick, but there are several reasons why I think Minnesota won’t be a basement dwelling team this year.

Adrien Peterson looks like the real deal. In limited preseason action, Peterson has run hard between the tackles and has been able to break out a few huge runs. Peterson has the potential to be a game-changing player in the Ladanian Tomlinson mold. The key issue with Peterson is health, as he seems to have the longevity of a John Stamos sitcom.

I’m not jumping on the Tavaris Jackson bandwagon, but I think even a serviceable effort by the first year starter could mean a wild card playoff birth for the Vikings. However, serviceable might be a stretch for Jackson as he, almost impossibly, appears to be a dumb version of Michael Vick.

“Cute necklace. Also, I really like your earings.” Two compliments a starting NFL quarterback should never hear.

Their defense is also formidable. The Vikings maintained the third best rushing defense and boasts a decent defensive backfield.

Don’t discount strength of schedule, either. Their first four opponents are Atlanta, Detroit, Kansas City, and Green Bay. They have to play Chicago twice, but I’d love to be in a division that plays four games against lowly Detroit and Green Bay.

The great thing about the feeble NFC is an 8-8 team has the potential to make the playoffs.

Also Considered- Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Soren Christensen:

Miami Dolphins

I seem to remember another team last season who snatched up a decent QB coming off a major injury that went on to have an utterly incredible season – The New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees.

Listen, I’m not saying Trent Green is going to have a Pro-Bowl year. However, I think he’s a QB who still has some left in the tank. He’s only 37. Yes, I said only 37. Brad Johnson was productive for a mediocre Vikings team at 37. Also, Green has something to prove after being shown the door in Kansas City. He has two decent receivers to throw to in Chris Chambers and Marty Booker and an up and coming back in Ronnie Brown.

Come on Trent, show us your youth…

One could argue the offense has been improved with Trent Green taking the snaps instead of the injury plagued Daunte Culpepper or the ever annoying Joey Harrington. And the defense has certainly been improved with the addition of Joey Porter.

There is simply far too much talent on Miami’s defense – Joey Porter, Zach Thomas, Jayson Taylor - to not believe they can be at least a middle of the pack team next year. They finished 6-10 last year in the AFC East – which is no easy division.

Posted in NFL, Sports Debates | 5 Comments »

NFL QB Rankings

September 2nd, 2007

By John Lynch, john@sportsdopes.com

1. (Tie) Tom Brady/Peyton Manning- time to stop splitting hairs about these two. Both have dominant arm strength, football intelligence, leadership, and tenacity. Now, both have rings as well.

3. Drew Brees- Have you ever seen a guy do more with less? The shortest starting quarterback in the NFL also possesses below average arm strength. Brees is living proof that football is a thinking man’s game.

4. Carson Palmer- Uncanny arm strength, good looks, and a winning smile. Can’t decide whether I want to be him or be with him.

Carson Palmer has that certain je ne sais quoi

5. Tony Romo- when it comes to Romo, there are only three names that matter: Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, and Jessica Simpson. How in God’s name do you pull that when you look like the Keebler Elf? Anybody who questions this pick needs to ask one question: whom below would you rather have as your starting quarterback? Romo turned a hopeless team into a playoff favorite, yet all anyone can remember is the Seattle blunder. As long as he’s not holding field goals, he’s easy money to be a perennial pro-bowler.

6. Phillip Rivers- Laser arm, accurate, smart, and hard working. It will always be LT’s team, but look for Rivers to let his hair down and throw deep in ’08.

7. Mark Bulger- Fantasy geeks are ready to name their first born after him, but until he wins, I’m not sold on him (injuries always a question as well).

8. Matt Hassleback- Never been crazy about Hassleback, but he cracks the top ten by default. I’m going to use the dreaded C word, which must make any professional athlete wince when attached to his name: competent.

9. Donovan McNabb- undoubtedly elite quarterback when healthy. Remember that time he wasn’t injured? That was great. Time to hit the gym, buddy.

10. Chad Pennington- Penny has one of the weakest arms in the NFL, but pinpoint accuracy helps to compensate.

11. J.P. Losman- I’m jumping on the bandwagon here. I like his improvement over the past two seasons and word out of camp is that he looks incredible.

12. Ben Roethlisberger- I don’t like him because he looks dirty. Like he hasn’t showered in a year. Okay, there, I said it.

13. Jon Kitna- I like Kitna, but Calvin Johnson is two years away and his offensive line is stinky. It’s the merry-go-round that is the Detroit Lions. Draft skill, ignore o-line, and watch Millen throw his overrated, overpaid skill players into the fire. Have you watched Bellicheck? He built a dynasty on drafting lineman.

14. Jay Cutler- could easily have the strongest arm in the NFL. Mobility is solid and if he if he ever figures out how to read an NFL defense, the Bronco’s could have quite a productive year. It doesn’t hurt either that Denver has the most underrated player of the decade in Travis Henry.

15. Matt Schuab- I’m now officially a genius for proclaiming that the Falcons traded the wrong QB this past April. Can you imagine if Atlanta unloaded Vick, stockpiled picks, and still had Schuab? How am I not a GM? Schuab might be the next Rob Johnson, but I’m willing to take that chance.

16. Matt Leinart- potential to be good, but not great.

17. Vince Young- He’s not a good passer. Mechanics will never allow it.

18. Steve McNair- McNair had something to prove last year. This year? Not so much. The least motivated quarterback in the league has a rapidly deteriorating skill set and is poised to have a disastrous 2008.

19. Brett Favre- see Steve McNair.

20. Jake Delhomme- the most mercurial QB in the league has some added pressure now that sack-master David Carr was signed as a backup. Carolina is finally realizing that Delhomme just isn’t that good.

21. Jeff Garcia- I’m a big fan. I love his grit and determination, but just don’t see him succeeding in Tampa Bay.

22. Alex Smith- You know what they say about guys with small hands? Truth be told, it could be a breakout year for Smith, but I’ve never seen a 1st pick with so little hype. He’s got weapons around him, so this could be a do or die year.

23. Eli Manning- Doesn’t he look like he just wants to cry sometimes? I would too if I was surrounded by a cancerous locker room that includes Shockey, Burress, and Strahan. Manning is not a good personality fit for this team, who desperately need a Marino-type who’s willing to embarrass his wide receivers on the sidelines. Manning looks like a whipped husband holding a bottle of Cabernet Sauvignon at his wife’s Tupperware party.

24. Rex Grossman- which Grossman will show up in 2008? The two-faced QB has every reason to succeed in 2008.

25. Byron Leftwich- gave one of the most inspirational performances I’ve ever had the privilege of watching. Unfortunately, the lumbering quarterback still looks like he needs his lineman to carry him to the next play.

26. Trent Green- one new system, one injury away, one year past prime. Will this be the year the bottom drops out in Miami?

27. Josh Mccown/Daunte Culpepper- the fact that their names are even mentioned in the same name spells doom for the Raiders. As for the Russell negotiations, it appears both sides have dug in for the long hall. How far into the season could this last?

28. Tavarius Jackson- tough time to be a Minnesota fan right now. Garnett leaves and now the biggest question is whether Jackson or Holcomb becomes the starter. Look out below!

29. Charlie Frye- no point in talking about Frye since he appears to be a dead man walking. The real surprise is Brady Quinn. Who knew he had the arm strength? I sure didn’t.

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